After 3 months

It’s been 3 months since I quit my job.

And I can relate to a quote by Derek Sivers I read recently.

“Most people over-estimate what they can do in one year, and under-estimate what they can do in 10 years.”

To start with, I guess I had too many options to choose from and hence, had been facing a problem of plenty. Naturally, that meant dissipated attention.

Deciding what to do next is not easy and I have been behaving like a flip-flop. Here, here and here.. I have had different opinion. Initially, I thought I would do something related to my hobbies. Then, after some deliberation, decided against it and thought my interest in personal finance and analytics (my regular job) were worthier things to work on. If not my own startup on Analytics, perhaps a job in a startup, I felt.

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Tapprs rental as a business

‘Why do you want to get into equipment rentals?’

A financially savvy friend of mine asked me.

Few of you might know that I handle Tapprs as a hobby venture.

Equipment rental, esp dealing with equipment like photography gear is

• a high risk business and equipment damages can hurt returns
• is dependent on volumes and return per rental activity is small
• is capital intensive (to make more money, you need to pump in more and buy more equipment)
• break even period is about 75-100 days worth of rental which in calendar terms could work out to more than a year for a very successful rental shop and could take 3 years for those that aren’t as successful. In 3 years, the equipment could fall out of favor from the user crowd.

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Smartlink and the huge dividend announcement

I don’t usually post on investment ideas these days. But I found this one pretty interesting.

A company called Smartlink (demerged from D-Link) caught my eye last month after reading a comment on Prof. Bakshi’s article on Piramal Healthcare. While I am a huge fan of the Professor and found Piramal healthcare idea interesting for the long term, it did sound a bit promotional.

The comment on Smartlink was about how similar it was to Piramal healthcare.

• most of the main business was sold off at pretty good prices
• huge cash on the books
• management looking at new opportunities
• market de-valuing ‘cash’ held in these companies due to fear of uncertainty (what would these guys do with the cash?)

In case of Piramal healthcare, Ajay has a pretty good track record over the last 25 years creating wealth. But market doesn’t treat K.R. Naik on the same grounds. Also, Smartlink with a total outstanding of 3 Cr shares  and a market cap of 300 Crores at today’s price is much smaller to get enough attention.

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The illusion of risk

Consider this widely discussed / over referenced scenario.

There is an explosion you are a witness to. Three men are injured.

They are lying injured on the ground. If they do not receive medical aid, all three will bleed to death.

Which of the following do you feel is the best rescue option?

1. A rescue attempt in which one of the three men will be saved.
2. A rescue in which there’s a one-third chance that all three men will be saved and a two-thirds chance that no one will be saved.

What was your answer? 1 or 2?

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Direction

Four more days before I add to the unemployed pool.

The last 3 weeks have been very good.

I’ve been spending time on figuring things out and am pretty pleased with what I’ve figured out. Very importantly, was able to realize that certain things weren’t for me. Also, been able to figure out few things that I certainly would want in life.

I would say, the map is almost 3/4th done. There are missing links, those can be figured out, by trial and error.

A few key updates

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